Coronavirus Forecast in Australia and impact to Retail


Coronavirus in Korea

As I mentioned in last blog. Most of government and citizen underestimate the impact of the virus, like local government in Wuhan. But this is still happen otherwhrere even today.
We can learn that the death rate in Italy is 10 times of Korea: Italy death rate is 6.7% double of Wuhan,  while Korea is 0.6%, similar to other province in China. WHO estimated rate is 3.4% worldwide. Comparing to Italy, what’s the difference?

What’s right in Korea?

 1. Discipline of the citizen. Korea only lock down some region, and heavy punishment to people not obey the rule and gathering.
2.High capacity of test: test system keeps running 24 hours and 20K/day. And accuracy rate is high. The earlier those infected people, the total cost is low. They have mobile test lab for some intensive area. Test people stay in their car to get test done but not queue in hospital which is another risk for them.
3.Tack closely every transmission chain, never give up any clue.
4. Treat: Medical resource focus on high risk people.
5. Masks: Take one in public indoor places like shopping mall if you can have one. This is important when infection begin in community. Protect yourself and protect others. It’s the most effective way to stop spreading. Remember, this is respiratory infectious disease. In Korea and Japan, people especial young people used to take masks in public area for beauty.
During the interview this week, medical officer of Italy already said, “it’s not in suggestion list not because it doesn’t works, only because of shortage.”
People should change their mind that some one with masks maybe is not infected, just because he want to protect himself and protect you, and even save the medical resources to save the life of the people.
Even serious measure taken like this, at least two patients died waiting for a hospital bed in Daegu, the worst affected city. While in Italy, the high priority of medical resource is already changed to longer expected life which is only happen in war period.

Status of Korea under Control

General to say, big impact to business but small impact to life.
(1) School still closed,
(2) Encourage people to work at home.
(3) Gathering stopped.
(4) Public service like transport system and supermarket is still working.

How long will the virus last and Impact to Retail?

Based on the experience of China/Korea/Italy, Australia time will last for at least 2 times longer than China. So, it will be 3~6 months. All countries are testing and try to find the balance solution how to control the speed of infection, while keep business moving on.
“This may be the new normal for South Korea and elsewhere”
Impact to retail: basic living material retail will be OK, but others especial like service and entertainment and restaurant will encounter dark time.

What we can do?

1. Prepare food and other living material for 1 month or even longer. Not because of shortage, just try not to go to public place as possible as we can.
2. Protect you family and yourself, try not to go to public place. If you have to go there, follow suggestion from government + mask.
3. Protect your employee or business, work at home if possible. Take care of your cash flow that can sustain for 3 month at least.
4. Appeal government to talk actions ASAP. Learn experience from Japan. Korea, and China. Don’t follow the arrogant US government.  If we don’t want to pay the cost today, we have to pay 10 times cost and 10 times time later.
Australia, to be like Korea or worse like Italy, highly depend on everyone and government, protect yourself, help others.
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